Laying out the Ill-Effects of Medicaid Cuts in the Congressional Budget Bill
A new analysis reviewing all evidence regarding the likely impact of proposed Congressional Medicaid cuts quantifies the dire consequences of slashing coverage. About 7 million individuals will become uninsured, >2 million will skip care, and annual deaths will increase by 8-24 thousand.
June 27, 2025
Projected Effects of Proposed Cuts in Federal Medicaid Expenditures on Medicaid Enrollment, Uninsurance, Health Care, and Health
Annals of Internal Medicine
June 17, 2025
By Adam Gaffney, David U. Himmelstein, & Steffie Woolhandler
From the Abstract:
… Enactment of the House bill [Medicaid cuts] advanced in May 2025 would increase the number of uninsured persons by 7.6 million and the number of deaths by 16 642 annually …
Policy makers should weigh the likely health and financial harms to patients and providers of reducing Medicaid expenditures against the desirability of tax reductions, which would accrue mostly to wealthy Americans.
Comment by: Jim Kahn & Don McCanne
Drs. Gaffney, Himmelstein, & Woolhandler perform a critically important service: they compile and summarize the voluminous evidence that … health insurance provides access to care, improving health and extending life. And taking away health insurance has the opposite effects, harming health and increasing deaths. Of course we know that. But when these health policy leaders quantify what to expect with the specific proposed Medicaid cuts in the Congressional budget reconciliation bill, even the two of us – seasoned health policy analysts – are stunned. The accumulated empirical evidence is persuasive, and the anticipated harms are shocking.
We’ve taken the liberty of creating a summary table with the core findings (see above). Uninsured numbers rise by 6.8 million among adults (plus about 1 million among children), with 8 – 24 thousand added deaths. For more detail, especially about reductions in access to care and general health status, check out the article. And also see the PNHP press release here and NBC coverage here.
As we’ve reported previously, most voters oppose Medicaid cuts, even among Trump supporters. And in the last couple of days, the Senate parliamentarian deemed up to 40% of the cuts unacceptable by Senate budget bill rules. So we have some hope that these efforts to slash Medicaid will wither on the vine.
But they won’t wither on their own. It is essential for opponents to speak up.
Share this information widely. People need to know.
About the Commentator, Jim Kahn
Jim (James G.) Kahn, MD, MPH (editor) is an Emeritus Professor of Health Policy, Epidemiology, and Global Health at the University of California, San Francisco. His work focuses on the cost and effectiveness of prevention and treatment interventions in low and middle income countries, and on single payer economics in the U.S. He has studied, advocated, and educated on single payer since the 1994 campaign for Prop 186 in California, including two years as chair of Physicians for a National Health Program California.
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